Rabobank predicts tight piglet market due to stoppers

The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is shaking up the European pig market, Rabobank notes in its most recent sector update. Meat exports are expected to remain at the same level as a year ago. In addition, the bank expects the supply of piglets to remain tight this year.

Since FMD was detected in Germany in January, our eastern neighbours have been unable to export meat to several countries outside the EU, such as the United Kingdom, South Korea and Mexico. Rabobank expects that the restrictions will lead to a shift in trade flows in favour of other European countries. This will probably create opportunities on the world market, as sales will shift to other European countries. On the other hand, competition from Germany within the European Union will increase.

Exports decline
Rabobank also expects that the slight increase in pig production in 2024 will not continue this year. The fall in pig prices has led to increased demand at European slaughterhouses. As a result, meat production in Europe fell by 2%. Because the European sow herd shrank slightly in 2024, the bank expects a fall in production of 0,5% this year.

According to the bank, exports in 2025 will remain at approximately the same level as last year. In the first ten months of 2024, exports were 0,5% lower than in 2023. Prices of other players on the world market are lower, which means that competing for the European Union is not proving to be easy. Demand from China is also unlikely to provide a new boost. The bank estimates that demand in the Asian country will remain the same.

Pig market remains tight
In the meantime, the bank expects the piglet market to remain relatively tight in 2025. In all probability, the LBV scheme will cause the Dutch piglet supply to shrink. The bank expects that the large import market Spain will not be able to absorb the increasing tightness by expanding the sow herd. Finally, the bank expects that African swine fever (ASF) and PRRS will continue to put pressure on production.

Matthew Bremer

Order Boerenbusiness Matthijs Bremer covers the meat markets. He also writes weekly about developments in the energy markets.

m.bremer@foodbusiness.nl

© DCA Market Intelligence. This market information is subject to copyright. It is not permitted to reproduce, distribute, disseminate or make the content available to third parties for compensation, in any form, without the express written permission of DCA Market Intelligence.