China still a crucial market for pig sector

Almost everyone in the pig sector still remembers the huge Chinese demand for European pork as a result of the problems surrounding African swine fever (ASF) in that country. In a period of just 12 months, European pork exports tripled. This led to high pig prices in 2019 and early 2020. The country's demand for pork has now returned to the level it was at before the ASF problem.

Exports of more expensive components in particular have fallen. However, sales of by-products remain fairly stable and are still of considerable importance to the sector. Since production in the European Union is likely to remain stable in the coming years, but demand on the home continent is slightly decreasing, China's influence on the sector in our country remains something to be reckoned with.

China continues to demand by-products, but for less money
Although the total Chinese demand for pork is falling, the products that are less in demand here remain popular. The export of more expensive parts has clearly fallen. This has a clear impact on the export value of the exported products. According to figures from the Chinese customs (General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China) the country imported approximately $2020 billion worth of pork products in 14,9. In 2024 (up to and including November), approximately $4,4 billion of this remained. This represents a decrease of around 70%. However, this is still considerably more than before the ASF problem in 2018, when the country imported $2 billion worth of pork.

In volume, the decline in this period is even greater. Between 2020 and 2024 (up to and including November), the volume in tonnes fell by around 70%, from 573.000 tonnes to 209.000 tonnes.

Factor for Dutch pig prices
Although the attention for Chinese developments has faded somewhat into the background in recent years due to this decline, the importance of Chinese demand for the Dutch sector is still very relevant. Figures from Eurostat show that certainly for Dutch slaughterhouses, export to the country is still considerable.

These figures clearly show that the export figures for the Netherlands also fell sharply. The final figures for 2024 are known up to and including October. The table below shows the export figures for the Netherlands, in which we have corrected the volumes for a 12-month period, assuming that the volume in the last 2 months will be around the annual average of 2024.

Despite the decreased volumes, the export of meat remains an important pillar on which the Dutch sector rests, as is also evident from the figures above. Although there is a lot of attention for concepts and the creation of added value in the Dutch chain, the total production in our country is still much larger than consumption. Based on the export figures of Eurostat, in which the volume is shown in carcass weight, it can be assumed that (based on an average carcass weight of 100 kilos) around 6,8 million pigs still cross the border as meat. Within this part, the share of China is also considerable. 

When asked, Dutch slaughterhouses emphasize the importance of this flow. They indicate that Chinese sales are and will remain crucial to calculate the square value. The sale of pig parts outside Europe may not be as lucrative as a few years ago, but the return per meat pig is still €15 to €20, according to insiders. 

How strong is the Chinese economy?
In other exporting countries, including the United States, people are concerned about the robustness of the Chinese economy and the related demand for pork and the future impact on overseas producers. For example, the Chinese birth rate policy (which ran from around 1980 to around 2010) will lead to a significant decline in the population. In addition, the share of people aged 65 and over will continue to increase. Conservative scenarios now assume a decline in the number of inhabitants from around 700 million to around 500 million. A smaller population will undoubtedly have an impact on the size of the economy.

In addition, the Chinese economy has been able to build a strong position in recent decades due to the relatively low wages in the country. If the production factor labour becomes tighter, this will also have consequences for the wage position of employees in China. All in all, these developments will sooner or later lead to a smaller group of consumers. The country will also have to find a new balance in order to be able to compete internationally.

For pork exporters it is important to keep a close eye on these developments, write American media. They advise companies that are heavily dependent on exports to China to also look at other development opportunities.