The effect of the stopper regulations is already clearly visible in the pig supply in our country. What is the impact exactly and has the bottom in slaughtering already been reached? Pig farmers who have registered sometimes still have doubts, according to the periphery.
In the first quarter of 2025 (up to and including week 13), 3.900.568 slaughter pigs from Dutch pig farms were offered and transported to a slaughterhouse in the Netherlands or abroad. That was 202.201 fewer than a year earlier in this period, or a decrease of 4,9%. This means that the downward trend in the supply of meat pigs is accelerating.
Number of slaughters decreasing less rapidly
The number of pigs slaughtered in the Netherlands decreased by 58.384 heads in the first quarter to a total of 3.752.477 heads, a decrease of 2,5%. The decrease in the supply of pigs mainly affected the number of exported meat pigs. That number decreased by 105.230 heads to a total of 148.091 animals. That means a decrease of 41,5%. Last year, 253.321 slaughter pigs crossed the border in the first quarter. The decrease was exacerbated by the lagging German pig price in the first quarter compared to the Dutch slaughterhouse quotations.
In the past month, the available pig supply in the Netherlands fell below 290.000 animals per week. This means that the supply of slaughter pigs is no longer always sufficient for the processing capacity of Dutch slaughterhouses. The decline in the first quarter is therefore somewhat stronger than at the end of 2024. In the second half of 2024 (week 26 to week 52), the supply of slaughter pigs was 2,7% below the level of the same period in 2023.
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Change in pig supply per quarter (compared to same quarter previous year) |
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|
Q1 '24 |
Q2 '24 |
Q3 '24 |
Q4 '24 |
Q1 '25 |
|
-33.548 |
-96.971 |
-137.846 |
-68.111 |
-202.201 |
|
-0,8% |
-2,6% |
-3,9% |
-1,6% |
-4,9% |
How much shrinkage is left in the pipeline?
Over the first quarter, the supply per week is on average around 15.500 animals smaller. This shows that at least some of the pig farms that have registered for a Lbv-(plus) scheme have also actually stopped. How much the supply will shrink in the coming six months remains a matter of guesswork.
Frank Steenbreker of aaff accountants en adviseurs (new organisation name after merger of Alfa accountants en adviseurs and ABAB) sees that there is also a considerable group of pig farmers who have registered for the scheme, but doubt whether they will actually participate: "Companies that have registered for a Lbv-(plus) scheme can still change their minds after the first advance. This group is currently still delivering pigs and it is also questionable whether they will actually go on strike."
574 pig farms in the termination scheme
A total of 574 pig farms have registered for an Lbv (plus) scheme. In its latest sector update, Rabobank is therefore taking into account a reduction in the number of pigs of between 10% and 15%. A reduction of 10% in the pig supply would mean a weekly decline of around 30.000 pigs. The reduction in the supply of pigs over the first quarter is 2024% in 2025 and 5,7 together. This would mean that the supply of pigs (compared to 2024) will decrease somewhat further in the coming quarters, depending on the number of farms that actually participate.