Pork producers in the United States have seen export volumes stagnate in the first months of the year. The sector is facing headwinds on several fronts. The tariff war and growing production figures in other countries require focus for the remainder of the year.
US pork exporters had an excellent 2024, with pork export volumes increasing 3,8% to a total of 3.026.000 tonnes. However, 2025 has started off weaker, according to the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Export volumes in February were down around 4%. Volume was also down almost 3% in January. These are the first signs that exporters will face more headwinds this year.
Levies and growing competition
A contraction in exports occurred mainly towards Japan, South Korea and Mexico. A spokesperson for the USMEF indicates that in many other countries the export demand was still strong in February. In the meantime, USMEF acknowledges the concerns about the consequences of possible counter-tariffs on pork as a result of the trade war started by Trump. It is hoped that solutions to the problems will be found in the short term. According to the USMEF, it remains especially important for exporters to 'stay focused and continue to market American pork worldwide where opportunities arise'.
In addition to the levies, producers in the United States are also experiencing increasing competition from the Brazilians on various markets. The Brazilian pig sector has been growing for years – also expected to grow by 2025% in 2 – and is strongly focused on export. For example, Brazilian exporters have managed to build up a significant market share in Mexico in recent years, which is also of great importance to the Americans. According to Brazilian media, the Brazilian authorities are actively trying to have more slaughterhouses inspected for exports to Mexico in the short term. This is to be able to profit from trade unrest between Mexico and the United States as soon as possible.
Brazilian pork exports to Mexico amounted to 4.800 tons in March, which was zero a few years ago. Although it is still only a fraction of the approximately 95.000 tons that the Americans sell to Mexico, it is a sign of the times: for the time being, there is sufficient market demand for growth for both exporters, but competition on the world market is lurking.