The tariff war between the United States and China has now had a clear impact on the pork market. Published figures from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that recently placed orders totaling a total of...
This means that pork exporters in the United States are now clearly struggling with the consequences of the trade war started by Trump. The cancellations are the highest volume on a weekly basis since the early stages of the Corona pandemic in 2020. Despite all the unrest on the export market, pork prices in the United States are currently relatively stable. The futures market quotation for meat pigs in Chicago has even shown some recovery, due to calming statements from Trump.
Sales down
Earlier this year it became clear that the actual volume of pork exported over the first two months of this year was slightly lower than over the same period last year. In total, 3% less pork went to an export destination. In addition to the volume of pork exported, the USDA also keeps figures on the current sales figures of pork. The most recent sales figures indicate that the export volume is unlikely to recover for the time being.
In addition to the cancelled orders, new sales have also been at a low level in the past week. New sales (of fresh and frozen pork parts, excluding by-products) amounted to a volume of over 18.000 tonnes, where the 4-week average is normally around 30.000 tonnes. Although this does not include sales of by-products or processed products, it is an indicator for the total volume of pork sold.
|
New US Pork Sales 2025 |
|
|
x1000 tons (Per week in week ending on date) |
|
|
17/Apr |
18,6 |
|
10/Apr |
22,7 |
|
03/Apr |
25,7 |
|
27 / Mar |
54,7 |
|
20 / Mar |
33,2 |
|
13 / Mar |
21,3 |
|
06 / Mar |
23,5 |
|
27/Feb |
45,2 |
|
20/Feb |
34,8 |
|
13/Feb |
27,6 |
|
06/Feb |
26,1 |
|
30/Jan |
55,7 |
|
23/Jan |
34,6 |
|
16/Jan |
39,2 |
|
09/Jan |
33,0 |
Also when looking at the total volume of 'outstanding sales' (sold but not yet delivered) pork, an indicator for the future export volume, the declining interest in American pork becomes clear. This is now around 14% below last year's level. The volume sold to China (-72%) and Mexico (-26%) in particular has fallen sharply. The export figures for March are expected in the short term. Then it will become clear to what extent the export volume has actually fallen further.
Not yet on speaking terms
After Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese products of up to 145%, China hit back with tariffs of 125% on American products. With existing import duties, the total import duties on American pork now amount to 172%. This makes importing American pork products too expensive at the moment, causing orders to be canceled. While Trump struck a somewhat moderate tone towards China last week and suggested that lower tariffs were currently being discussed, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately refuted this suggestion. He indicated that to his knowledge, there were no discussions about resolving the issue at the moment.
Pricing
Despite the weak export figures, the risk of geopolitical tensions seems to have been factored into the market. The fact that Trump adopted a more moderate tone towards China last week even caused the futures markets to recover strongly this week. Pigs for delivery in the summer months are now trading for around $2,20 per kilogram slaughtered weight. Converted to euros, this is around €1,95 per kilogram slaughtered weight. The physical pig price (Iowa/Minnesota) briefly moves above $2 per kilo.