Danish pig market is changing rapidly

The average Danish slaughter price has taken a considerable step up. The price rose by a remarkably high 21 cents, from €1,61 ​​to €1,82. This makes the average price equal to the most recent slaughter price of the dominant slaughterhouse Danish Crown. The difference between the (higher) Dutch slaughter quotation and the quotation of Danish Crown thus decreases from 18% to 4,3%.

However, this method is not completely accurate, because additional payments are not included. These fall from 13 cents per kilo to 9 cents. Additional payments are included in the DCA exchange price, although this price also takes into account the profit of traders. Although this method is also not completely accurate, it does provide a second indication of the increase for the pig market. If you compare the price of Danish Crown including additional payment with the exchange price, the difference falls from 13,4% to 5,9%.

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An important reason for the structurally lower prices is the high salaries in the Danish meat sector. Due to the strong trade union culture in Denmark, employees in the meat sector are paid considerably better than in other European countries. In Denmark, the average salary is about 10% higher than in the Netherlands. As a result, there is simply less money left to pay the pig farmers.

Lower exports
For a long time, the higher wages did not cause any problems, because Denmark was able to sell its meat for top prices thanks to a very strong export position. However, this has changed in recent years due to a decrease in European exports to third countries. Since 2021, European pig exports have fallen significantly.

In 2020 and 2021, pork exports to China reached their peak. In addition to the always stable export of by-products, the European Union also exported significant quantities of meat parts to the Asian country during this period. This was due to lower domestic production there, as a result of the massive outbreak of African swine fever (ASF). After the outbreak was brought under control, China not only managed to restore production, but overcompensated. The country produced so much pork that slaughter prices fell below cost. These low domestic prices removed the incentive to import on a large scale, causing fresh meat imports to fall significantly.

Lower exports make the difference
A turbulent period of restructuring began for the entire European market. The sector had to adapt to the new reality in which considerably less meat was exported. The war in Ukraine made this adjustment even more difficult, because Europe was hit relatively hard by rising feed prices. This caused pig prices to be structurally higher. At the same time, a structural oversupply actually arose on the market.

Denmark suffered more from this than other countries, as the Northern European country traditionally sells around 90% of its pork outside its borders. Exports to third countries in particular weighed heavily. In 2021, Denmark exported as much as 58% of its pork to countries outside the EU, making the country particularly vulnerable to changes in the global market. The effects of this were quickly noticeable. Just a few months after European exports began to fall, Danish prices began to lag behind the other major European quotations.

Integration proves to be not only beneficial
During that period, exports to the world market were generally at a high level. By comparison, the Netherlands exported 53% of its pork to countries outside the European Union. However, the Netherlands proved to be considerably better able to shift that export to other EU countries. The strategy of the main player, Danish Crown, proved to be unhelpful in this situation. The company focuses primarily on long-term relationships and the sale of high-quality end products.

To make this possible, Danish Crown is establishing companies in strategically important countries. For example, in 2019, the company opened a factory in Pinghu, China. Just before the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), this seemed like an ideal time. However, the location soon proved to be unprofitable. In February 2025, Danish Crown decided to withdraw completely. Most other European countries, including the Netherlands, mainly produce within the European Union and export any high-quality end products to nearby markets. This strategy makes it possible to respond more quickly to changing market conditions and to shift export flows more easily.

Smaller pig herd
A consequence of the low prices due to the weak export position is a significant reduction in the Danish pig population. Due to the limited profitability, a great many pig farmers in Denmark have stopped in recent years. Between 2020 and 2023, the size of the pig population decreased by no less than 14,2%. In 2023, a stabilisation was visible, which indicated that the market was somewhat in balance. In 2024, a slight recovery of just under 1% followed, bringing the Danish pig population to 11,6 million animals. This is an important explanation for Denmark's relatively stronger market position: a large part of the previous oversupply has now disappeared from the market.