US meat exports sprint ahead of tariffs

Beef exports rose 1% to 109.330 metric tons, while pork exports even increased 3% to 269.344 metric tons. The president of the American Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF) called it a "spectacular month for demand for U.S. pork in Mexico and Central America" ​​and "robust and resilient demand for beef." However, the outlook is uncertain.

Meat on its way to China
In particular, meat exports to China have been hampered by the tariff war until recent weeks. A total Chinese import tariff of 172% applies to pork and 147% to beef. Meat shipped to China before April 10 and arriving in that country before May 13 will be admitted without additional duty, the USMEF reports. According to the USMEF, exporters have been running into a wall in new trade to China since April 10, although the weaker dollar is an advantage. 

China's share of US export volumes is around 15% for both beef and pork. At the moment, China's share of the export markets is still being hit by the tariffs. The figures for April and May will therefore show a weakening, certainly in the volumes to China. However, on Monday 12 May, the situation changed considerably again. China and the United States have agreed on a 90-day break. The United States has reduced the trade tariffs from 145% to 30%. China is reducing the new import tariffs from 125% to 10%. This brings the tariff on pork to 57%. The levy on beef will be 32% for the next ninety days.

Trade relations with Mexico important, but also uncertain
The USMEF further indicates in its monthly update that it is closely monitoring the situation regarding trade with Mexico. The US Department of Commerce may intend to impose a 21% anti-dumping duty on tomato imports from Mexico as of July 14, 2025. Although there is no clarity yet on possible countermeasures, according to the USMEF pork has been mentioned as a possible interesting product for countermeasures. For the time being, Trump has suspended the previously announced general import duties.

Mexico is one of the United States' most important exporters of both beef and pork. About 16% of beef exports go to Mexico, and for pork, that percentage is 25%. The impact of any disruption in trade between these countries could hit American exports particularly hard. Should it lead to significant conflict, there is a good chance that the United States will not be able to maintain its current volumes.

Deal with United Kingdom
Last week it was announced that the United States and the United Kingdom had reached new bilateral trade deals. Beef seems to have been a major factor in these discussions. For example, Agriculture Minister Brooke Rollins stated that the deal could lead to exponential growth in beef exports to the United Kingdom. How big the impact of these agreements will actually be remains to be seen. In March 2025, 509 tonnes of beef went from the US to the UK, just a fraction of total exports. However, in March 2025 this was already more than three and a half times greater than the 158 tonnes in March 2024, but the volumes remain negligible.

Finally, the question is to what extent the demand from Great Britain matches the exports to China. The Asian country mainly imports by-products such as organ meat. In addition, the import consists to a considerable extent of luxury products such as steaks. The United Kingdom imports these products to a limited extent. The same problem applies to Mexico. In practice, the demand in the United Kingdom is fairly similar to the product that the United States itself imports on a large scale. In both countries, the demand for meat scraps is the strongest. By concluding targeted deals, the US seems to be clearly working on better differentiating its export positions.