Analysis Pigs
Is the pig supply really that tight?
For months now, it has been an important topic of conversation: the impact of the various stopper regulations on the supply of pigs in our own country. In the Netherlands, the supply is under pressure and the domestic market can be described as tight. Pig prices reluctantly increased, but according to slaughterhouses, they increasingly became out of step with the development of meat prices. Last week, the market received a serious blow. Pork prices are largely determined on the European stage, and is the supply here really that tight?
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Although the European Commission expected a slight decline in pork production this spring, this has not been the case in the first four months. The number of slaughters in the European Union even increased significantly by more than 1,1 million animals to a total of 76,14 million slaughters in the period from January to April. This is an increase of 1,5% compared to the same period in 2024. By comparing the period up to and including April (and not on a quarterly basis), the number of cancelled slaughter days due to public holidays is kept as similar as possible.
Significant increase in many countries
Although the pig supply in the Netherlands is decreasing, production in many other European countries is now increasing again after a significant decline in the years 2020 to 2023. For example, the number of slaughters already increased by 2024% in 1, with the emphasis on the second half of the year in which the number of slaughters was around 1,4% higher than in 2023. This growth has continued in 2025.
The most striking increases can be seen in Spain, Germany and Poland. For example, the number of slaughters in Spain increased by more than 763.000 animals, in Germany by 177.000 animals and in Poland by 256.000 animals. In the Netherlands, the number of pigs slaughtered was 2,7% lower than a year earlier, in Denmark the supply decreased by 2,4%. The total pig supply in the Netherlands did shrink more sharply, but this was mainly at the expense of the number of exported live slaughter pigs.
The overview below shows the development of the number of pigs slaughtered over the period January to April 2024 and 2025 for the EU as a whole and for the most important pig producing countries individually.
| EU pig supply period January to April | 2024 | 2025 | Mutation in pieces | Mutation percentage |
| EU-27 | 75.028.000 | 76.144.000 | + 1.116.000 | + 1,5 % |
| Spain | 18.280.000 | 19.043.000 | + 763.000 | + 4,2 % |
| Germany | 14.885.000 | 15.062.000 | + 177.000 | + 2,4 % |
| Denmark | 5.009.000 | 4.895.000 | -114.000 | -2,3% |
| Poland | 6.619.000 | 6.875.000 | + 256.000 | + 3,9 % |
| The Netherlands | 5.071.000 | 4.934.000 | -137.000 | -2,7% |
Eastern Europe
Meanwhile, in addition to Poland, other Eastern European countries in the Balkans also seem to be expanding production again. Outbreaks of African swine fever and the fear of it slowed down pig production for years. Although the disease has certainly not disappeared in these countries, people now seem to be better prepared to deal with the circumstances. The increase in production in recent years has been considerable.
The number of pig slaughters in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria also increased significantly in the first quarter. In 2024, 2.899.000 pigs were processed in these countries during this period, over the first four months of 2025 this number had risen to 3.125.000. An increase of 226.000 animals, or 7,8%.
Rising weights boost meat supply
Where the slaughter numbers in the EU-27 increased by 1,5%, the increase in meat production was somewhat higher. As a result of increasing slaughter weights, the total volume of pork produced amounted to 7.458.000 tonnes. This is an increase of 229.000 tonnes of pork, or 3,2%. This means that the supply of pork in the European Union was larger than a year earlier.
Although the number of slaughters is still more than 2022% lower than in 5, for example, the continuing trend of increasing slaughter weights is ensuring a recovery in supply. According to Eurostat figures, pork meat production in the first four months of 2025 was only 2,2% below the 2022 level.
A striking detail is that the production of the sector is becoming more independent of the development of the number of animals. It is a sign that the productivity per average pig present is still increasing: sows produce more piglets and a higher growth ensures a higher meat output per average pig present. This allows European pig farmers to achieve more production with fewer animals.
The Netherlands cannot dictate the market
Insiders from the pork market report that the recent decline is mainly seen as a result of moderate meat demand. Although slaughterers do not feel that there is a lot of supply of product from a very specific angle, the pig quotation remains a result of supply and demand and an increase in supply on the European market cannot be seen separately from this. As an insider puts it: "Buyers have been leaning back more and more in recent weeks because of the impending reductions. Apparently there is too much meat available for the demand. Although the supply of meat pigs in the Netherlands is about 5 percent smaller, the conclusion is clear that we cannot control the market with this."