EU and US pig prices fall simultaneously

Before the summer, European pig prices (since the war in Ukraine) were significantly higher than those in other major production markets. However, this trend has reversed since the summer. In the United States and Europe, prices have been moving roughly in tandem since June, according to European Union data. Prices in both markets have fallen sharply and are currently between €189 and €190 per 100 kilos.

Until the summer of 2025, pig prices in the European Union were significantly higher than in major competing markets. As a result, prices in the European Union were significantly higher than world market levels, leading to lower exports. Despite the high prices, exports from the European Union have remained remarkably constant over the past four years. Following the sharp price increase and associated drop in exports, exports fell sharply between 2020 and 2021, but the difference has been minimal in subsequent years. Between 2021 and 2025, exports in the first seven months of each year ranged between 2,45 million and 2,5 million tons of pork.

Determining global market
The opposite trend occurred in the United States. US pork prices fell sharply due to weak domestic demand and growing production. High inflation in the country caused a significant imbalance between producer and consumer prices, leading to a decline in pork's popularity. This resulted in significantly lower slaughter prices, making the United States a more attractive trading partner on the global stage compared to the European Union.

Due to low global prices, the United States significantly improved its export position. This led to a sharp increase in exports. In 2023, US pork exports rose by 11,9%, from 1,9 million tons to 2,15 million tons. The additional sales significantly expanded the US market, resulting in a significant increase in prices.

However, a counterreaction to this dynamic is now visible. Higher prices have made importing American pork less attractive, causing global demand to decline again. In the first seven months of the year, this resulted in a 6,8% drop in exports compared to the same period in 2023, despite the weaker dollar. This decline is exacerbated by relatively low international demand, which is putting pressure on pork prices worldwide. 

In the United States, this resulted in a decline of over 10%. Meanwhile, the average European carcass price decreased by 13,3%. In Northwest Europe, including the Netherlands, the price decline was approximately 20% sharper than elsewhere in the EU.