The domestic supply of pigs for slaughter is under significant pressure this year due to farms participating in the National Termination Scheme for Livestock Farming Locations (with peak demand), the Lbv (Livestock Farming Locations) and Lbv-plus (Livestock Farming Plus). The number of pigs offered for sale up to and including week 41 is approximately 5,2% below the 2024 level. Has the largest decline associated with the termination schemes now been achieved?
According to figures from the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO), 11,44 million pigs were offered for sale in the Netherlands up to and including week 41. Of these, 11,08 million were slaughtered on Dutch slaughter hooks, and 0,36 million were exported. Last year, the total supply was 12,07 million animals, 11,39 million were slaughtered in the Netherlands, and 0,68 million pigs crossed the border. This represents a 2,7% decrease in slaughtered pigs, while the number of exported pigs fell by a substantial 47,3%.
Will slaughter figures stabilize again?
The development of slaughter figures in the Netherlands is always strongly influenced by weekly peaks. Weeks with cancelled slaughter days or other incidents can result in a week-on-week comparison of the figures giving a false impression. It is clear that the decline in the pig supply intensified until around week 30 of this year. At that time, the 8-week average supply of pigs for slaughter was approximately 20.000 to 25.000 head below the 2024 level. In recent months, the difference with last year has been steadily narrowing, and the number of animals offered for slaughter is currently approximately 10.000 head lower per week than a year earlier.
Lbv-plus participants
Farms participating in either of the two termination schemes must be empty within twelve months of submitting the signed decision. This means that all animals and manure must be removed from the farm. For the Lbv scheme, most decisions were issued by the end of May 2024, meaning that farms, including the six-month reflection period, must be empty by November 2025 at the latest.
Although the Lbv-plus scheme was open for applications until December 2024, most registrations and decisions were already made in the spring and summer of 2024. Many of these businesses will therefore already be empty or will need to be vacated very soon.
The development of the slaughter figures therefore seems to be gradually hinting at a stabilization of the supply towards the end of 2025 and the spring of 2026. While a slight further decline until early next year seems logical, these numbers will likely not come close to those of the past period.
New regulations
The question remains, however, how long the supply can remain stable. The Ministry has announced that the next termination scheme is scheduled for the spring of 2026: the Voluntary Termination Scheme (Vbr). Pig farmers can also apply if they meet the scheme's conditions. The Ministry has indicated that it intends to publish the draft scheme for consultation this fall.