Italian pig market is not falling nearly as fast

Pork prices are under significant pressure across Europe. This also applies to Italy, although the decline there is less pronounced than in other markets. Since the market peak this summer, average carcass yields have decreased by only 2,8%, according to Eurostat data. The average price in the European Union has fallen by a whopping 18,8% since that same peak. The comparison with Spain is particularly interesting, as that country, like Italy, is a major market for heavy pigs. In Spain, the pork price even fell by more than the European average: 19,4%.

Popularity of Italian cured meats
The main reason for the higher Italian prices is the strong sales of Italian meat products. The structural increase in demand for such products (particularly hams) ensures that demand for pork remains strong for longer, while the drop in demand in the rest of Europe is noticeable later.

Due to the continued strong demand for Italian meat products, the price of heavy pigs, destined for the production of products such as hams, continued to rise. Until mid-October, there was still a significant increase. According to the most recent data, the price in this segment was 2,5% higher in September than a year earlier, at €2,18 per kilo.

Prices have dropped after all
Despite the slowdown, demand for pigs has since fallen significantly. Italian slaughterhouses are benefiting from the sharp drop in prices on European markets, which occurred after major competing countries like the Netherlands, Denmark, and Spain lost access to the Chinese market. Italy has been significantly less affected, as exports are primarily focused on Europe, the United States, and (increasingly) South and Central America. This immediately explains the significant difference compared to developments in the Spanish market.

Meanwhile, the lower prices on the European market are also affecting Italy, putting pressure on prices in this segment as well. According to data from the leading Italian Center for Economic Research on Sustainable Supply Chains (Crefis), the price has now dropped to €1,89 per kilo.

Average pig price drops significantly
Looking at the situation on the livestock markets, we see that the decline has indeed begun in Italy. The price of live pigs has fallen by approximately 9% since week 40. Although this decline is significant, it was only half as steep as the European average. Until week 42, the last period for which the European Union published figures, the pig price fell slightly more sharply than the pork price, by around 3%. The European figures do not yet show whether this has put additional pressure on meat prices, as the most recent data do not go back any further. This means that pig prices are falling at roughly the same rate as meat prices. However, unlike in Northern Europe, the margin recovery for Italian slaughterhouses is very limited as a result.