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Breakthrough in China with reduction of sow herd size

25 November 2025 - Wouter Baan

The number of breeding sows in China has fallen below 40 million for the first time in seventeen months, according to data from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture. This brings China's target of reducing pig production closer. Pig prices in China remain low for now, but that doesn't automatically mean large integrated pig farms can't make a profit.

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The number of breeding sows had fallen to 39,9 million by the end of October. Over the past eighteen months, the Chinese sow herd has consistently exceeded 40 million. By the end of 2023, China has set a target of reducing the number of sows to 39 million to reduce pork production and relieve market pressure. A smaller sow herd is necessary to maintain market balance, as average litter size continues to increase.

Pig prices in a trough
Initially, the decline was rapid, but briefly stalled above 40 million. Now, this psychological barrier has finally been broken, although the target of 39 million has still not been reached. This also explains why the pressure on pig prices in China remains strong. The average Chinese pig price was 11,33 yuan per kilo today (November 25), the lowest level in four years.

Integrations make profit
The low Chinese pig price doesn't mean the large Chinese pig integrations can't make a profit. Most of them were profitable in the first half of 2025, according to Chinese analysts. Cost control is key. Relatively low grain prices and improved feed conversion also contribute to this. Figures from market leader Muyuan Foods, which has more than 3 million sows, confirm this. In the first nine months of this year, the company saw its profit increase by 41% to 14,78 million yuan. Since the turn of the year, its market capitalization (although fluctuating) has risen by 32% so far. 

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