Analysis Pigs
Pig market haunted by Murphy's Law
Murphy's Law states that anything that can go wrong will go wrong. This is currently also true for the pig market. Just when prices seemed to be stabilizing, African swine fever has emerged in Spain.
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To what extent Spain Whether the virus will face export bans remains to be seen in the coming days. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty. Nevertheless, many (Asian) markets are imposing import bans if ASF is detected in a country. This casts a bleak outlook on the European meat market. Any bans likely would further oversupply the European pork market.
This would be a new setback in a short period, following China's import duties on European slaughterhouses in September and the export ban on Van Rooi Meat. Overall, market sentiment is depressed. Meanwhile, slaughterhouses are benefiting from some extra Christmas demand. Tenderloins became slightly more expensive this week, as evidenced by the DCA changes of pig partsHowever, these are not heavyweights within the carcass category. Hams, ribs, necks, and shoulders saw their prices decline, as did half carcasses.
Currency headwind
Meanwhile, the euro has been strengthening again in recent days and analysts Expect further increases as the US Federal Reserve considers further interest rate cuts. The Japanese yen is also historically weak against the euro. Japan is a major market for European pork, including high-quality parts. In 2024 as a whole, sales reached over 23.500 tons. Two years earlier, this figure was double that during a peak in demand. In recent months, sales figures have consistently been below last year's level.
More massacres
Despite the limited supply of pigs, sales of pigs for meat in the Netherlands are struggling. However, slaughter figures show that slaughterhouses are ramping up their slaughter somewhat, which is appropriate for this time of year. At 283.503 pigs, the slaughter figure was the highest since this spring.
Traders are opting for stabilization next week. Consequently, the DCA Exchange price for slaughtered pigs will remain unchanged at €1,50 per kilo, while the price for live pigs will remain unchanged at €1,15 per kilo.
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