Analysis Pigs
Pig market leaves period of unrest behind for now
After a few turbulent weeks, the pig market is returning to somewhat calmer waters. Pig prices are back on solid ground. And with Christmas approaching, demand for pigs is quite good. The outlook for the post-Christmas period remains uncertain.
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German pig prices continued to move sideways this week, and Dutch slaughterhouses followed suit. In Spain, the market remains under pressure due to the recent outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), but it could have been worse. The Spanish pig price fell yesterday by €0,060 to €1,040 per kilo, compared to €0,100 expected in previous weeks.
There is good demand for pig parts on the spot market. Dutch pig part prices rose sharply at the beginning of this week, according to the DCAPig parts monitorOn average, the carcass price has increased by €0,24 cents per kilo. This is a clear break from the trend of the last thirteen weeks. During that period, a weekly increase of more than 1 cent had not occurred. Until last week, the average carcass price had been down by as much as €0,18.
Ask for meat
Looking at the bigger picture, the increase is initially surprising. The pork price is under considerable pressure, as the meat market is flooded with Spanish pork that, due to export restrictions, cannot enter the global market. However, Spanish pork is not (always) in demand in domestic retail channels, which nevertheless results in good demand for typical Christmas items like tenderloins and pork necks. In its wake, bellies and midsections have risen along with them. However, demand is short-lived and will drop sharply just before Christmas. Therefore, it won't push up the pork price, but it will help stabilize the market.
Increasing slaughter numbers
Due to the loss of a few slaughter days, a significant pig backlog is looming in Northwest Europe by 2026. At the same time, a significant number of pigs have been slaughtered in recent weeks. Last week, the Dutch slaughter figure reached 293.552, its highest level since this spring. Due to the closure scheme, it was thought that the 300.000 threshold would be an insurmountable hurdle, but the difference is relatively small. This week's slaughter figure is likely to be lower due to a major disruption at a Vion slaughter facility.
All in all, there is no reason to change the DCA Exchange Price 2.0. The price for slaughtered pigs remains at €1,44 per kilo, and the price for live pigs at €1,11 per kilo.
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