Big surplus turned into growing deficit

The balance between surpluses and shortages appears to be fragile. Two weeks ago, free-range piglets were still difficult to place, while now demand is robust. Market surpluses have vanished like snow in the sun. Spain, in particular, is once again strongly interested in Dutch piglets and is paying higher export prices for common flocks, according to market reports. Since Spanish demand typically peaks between weeks 8 and 11, the peak has likely not yet been reached.

Demand is also increasing on the domestic market. Now that the pig surplus is shrinking and more pigs are being slaughtered, additional placement opportunities are emerging. Because prices have been rising since last week, demand is automatically boosted further. The DCA BestPigletPrice is rising this week by €3 to €35 per piglet. The market is following the long-term pattern, only at a lower price level. 

Pig's plug shrinks
Is there still a piglet plug? At most, a plug, but not much more than that. This is expected to shrink further, and soon, there will no longer be a need to move pigs. Weights may also drop. There are cautious indications in the market that there's room for higher prices. This could happen around Carnival, in mid-February. At the same time, caution is advised. Historically, there's no guarantee that pig prices will rise in February. This was the case in 2023 and 2024, but the meat market was clearly more attractive then than it is now.

Better Life is going well
The pig meat market is currently experiencing a cautious approach. Spain continues to sell large quantities of pork on the European market due to a lack of exports outside the EU, which is putting pressure on meat prices. The market indicates that this makes selling pork through conventional channels difficult.

Slaughterhouses indicate they are currently operating with negative margins and rely primarily on the Better Life (Beter Leven) segment. This acts as a kind of insurance, as there is virtually no competition from foreign players in this segment. Market insiders indicate that this supermarket segment, unlike regular pork, continues to perform reasonably well. This is partly due to the fact that consumer prices for pork with a one-star Better Life certification are often lower than those of chicken with the same certification.

Although the end of the pig supply crisis is slowly but surely in sight, it remains to be seen whether a lower pig supply will immediately lead to higher pig prices. The DCA Exchange Mutation Price remains unchanged this week.

Click here for an explanation from DCA Market Intelligence on the BestPigletPrice.