Pork exports to China are becoming more difficult

After the Chinese pig farming sector faced significant production losses in 2019 and 2020 due to outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), import demand for pork soared to a record high. In 2020, import volumes reached a record high of 5,73 million tons, with a total value of nearly $14,9 billion. That year, slaughter byproducts accounted for $2,9 billion of the total value, representing a volume of 1,34 million tons.

Meat volume and value shrank, by-products remained stable
In subsequent years, demand for pork products and carcasses declined, but the import demand for slaughter by-products remained at a reasonable level. In 2022, the volume of slaughter by-products amounted to 1,1 million tons with a value of $2,9 billion, in 2023 to 1,2 million tons with a value of $2,9 billion, and in 2024 to 1,2 million tons with a value of $2,7 billion.

In 2025, the volume of by-products purchased by China remained relatively stable year-round, but the import value fell significantly. While some 1,2 million tons of slaughter by-products still crossed the border, the export value dropped to approximately $2,5 billion, a decrease of about 11%. The Chinese market appeared saturated, particularly in the final months of the year. In December, for example, 60.000 tons were imported, worth $110 million.

In December 2024, this volume was still 90.000 tons, worth $197 million. This caused the value of the Chinese import market for slaughterhouse by-products, expressed in US dollars, to decline by as much as 44%. A significant decline was also seen in November 2025.

Square value
For years, the sale of by-products to China has been a significant factor in the carcass' valuation of pig carcasses. Dutch slaughterhouses acknowledge the negative trend of recent months and indicate that this can quickly reduce the value of each carcass by several euros.

Pig price China
Pork production in China was approximately 4,1% higher in 2025 than in 2024, Reuters recently reported, citing data from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture. In the fourth quarter, production was even 7% higher than a year earlier, reaching the highest fourth-quarter level since 2018.

This explains why pig prices in China are under significant pressure and why import demand is currently low. Pig prices in the fourth quarter were at their lowest level in years. Converted to euros, the pig price was well below €1,50 per kilogram live weight. The price still hovered around this level in early February. This is considerably lower than the approximately €2,10 per kilogram live weight in 2024 or even the €3 per kilogram live weight in 2022.