Analysis Pigs
Chinese pig production continues to rise
China's pig production is growing despite government measures to slow the sector. The increased supply is depressing pig prices and putting pressure on pork imports. Read more about Chinese pig production.
Read this article?
Become a subscriber and get instant access
Choose the subscription that suits you
Pig production in China increased by 4,1% year-on-year in 2025 to 59 million tons. The number of pigs slaughtered increased by 2,4% to 720 million animals. This is due to increased sow productivity. In the final quarter of the year, pig production reached 15,7 million tons, the highest level for a fourth quarter since 2018.
Reducing production proves complicated
The Chinese government has been trying to reduce pig production since 2024 to better balance supply and demand in the domestic market. That year, the country decided to reduce the number of sows from 41 million to 39 million. However, China has so far failed to control the size of its pig herd. The decline in the herd was almost immediately accompanied by a sharp rise in pig prices. In week 33 of 2024, the pig price was 42,8% higher than its low point in March.
Meanwhile, the price is significantly lower. Although the price recently showed a small rebound in January, the pig price has been structurally low since winter. In week 7, 12,94 yuan (€1,61 per kilo) was paid. From a European perspective, this doesn't even seem that low. This is still a cent above the VEZG level, which is high by European standards. In China, however, this level is far too low to produce profitably. The sector in that country is simply less efficient. Moreover, the country is heavily dependent on the import of soybean meal for animal feed.
Imports are declining
Due to the substantial domestic production, exports to the country are under pressure. Exports from the European Union decreased by 6,8% in 2025 to 1,07 million tons. Spain remained the largest exporter to the country, with a total export of 503.869 tons. Exports decreased by 6,3% in the year. Denmark was the second-largest exporter that year. Notably, imports from Denmark increased. Exports rose by 2,4% to 188.510 tons. Partly due to very strict new tariffs, Dutch exports in particular took a sharp decline. Exports decreased by a whopping 14,6% to 169.531 tons.
The decline in European exports appears very substantial, but compared to international competitors, the decline is not as bad. Brazilian pork exports to the country fell by a staggering 33,9% in 2025 to 159.200 tons. United States exports decreased by 21% in the same year to 367.416 tons.