Even more pigs in China, meat imports fall further

China's pork production in the first quarter was 4,2% higher than in the same period of 2025. The total volume amounted to 16,69 million tonnes, more than 600.000 tonnes higher than a year earlier. According to Rabobank analysts, pig farmers are scaling back numbers somewhat, but not at a rapid pace. The fact that production is rising despite this indicates, according to the bank, that the productivity of the Chinese pig sector is increasing rapidly.

Imports continue to decline at a rapid pace
The growing production volume has caused the volume of pork imported into China to decline for years. Figures from Chinese Customs show that this downward trend intensified further in the first months of this year. In particular, imports of premium cuts of meat amount to only a fraction of the level of approximately five years ago. Although the volume of imported by-products remains substantial, this volume is also declining.

Over the first two months of this year, China imported a total of 310.000 tonnes of pork products. Of this, 190.000 tonnes consisted of by-products and 120.000 tonnes of premium cuts. This volume represented a value of approximately $606 million. In the same period last year, the figure was 380.000 tonnes, of which 180.000 tonnes were by-products. The export value over the first two months of 2025 was still $807 million. Five years ago, in 2021, the total imported volume amounted to 900.000 tonnes and represented a value of $2,4 billion.

Imports from the European Union are also declining. After the peak year of 2020, caused by a large number of African swine fever outbreaks in China, the volume has decreased annually. The year 2025 is currently considered a new low point. Recent developments in China offer little room for a recovery in import demand for the time being.